Khaled Azar 
Goldman Sachs predicted 2024 would mark the shift “from stability to strength” in global M&A. They were right. Global deal value climbed to $3.5 trillion in 2024, up 15% year over year according to Bain & Company. Then 2025 blew past it, reaching $4.8 trillion, the second-highest total on record.
But here is what Goldman’s report does not tell you: none of those numbers matter if your business is not ready for a buyer. I have watched founders read bullish outlook reports and assume the market would carry them to a great exit. It does not work that way. A rising tide lifts prepared sellers. Everyone else just watches.
What Goldman Sachs Actually Said
The four themes that shaped their 2024 outlook, and how each one played out.
Goldman’s December 2023 report, titled “From Stability to Strength,” identified four forces they expected to drive M&A through 2024. Understanding these themes matters because they explain why deal flow surged and where it concentrated.
- Natural resources dominated — 25% of all M&A activity in 2023 landed in energy and natural resources, up from 19% in 2022. The “older economy” was buying aggressively.
- Corporate simplification accelerated — 22 global separations above $500 million were announced in 2023. Over 70% of those announcements got a positive market reaction.
- Activist campaigns targeted bigger companies — 30-35% of activist campaigns in 2023 went after large-cap targets, up from 20% two years prior.
- Sponsors stepped back — 104 take-private deals closed in 2023, but the shift moved toward corporate strategic buyers over financial sponsors.
Global M&A deal value in 2025, the second-highest total on record, according to Bain & Company. Goldman Sachs advised on $1.48 trillion of that volume.
Goldman’s 2024 predictions proved accurate. The M&A recovery was real, driven by corporate buyers, activist pressure, and portfolio simplification across every major sector.
How the Predictions Played Out
Goldman called the recovery. The data confirmed it. But the details matter more than the headlines.
By mid-2024, deal activity had increased roughly 10% year over year. Goldman’s own 2025 outlook confirmed what they had predicted: macro clarity fueled corporate confidence. Rate cuts gave buyers cheaper financing. A more permissive regulatory environment in the U.S. removed another bottleneck.
The corporate simplification trend Goldman flagged proved especially prescient. By 2024, more than half of global separation announcements occurred outside the United States. Companies worldwide were shedding non-core divisions to focus capital on their strongest verticals.
AI emerged as a new driver Goldman had only hinted at. Their 2025 report introduced an “Infrastructure-Platform-Application” framework for AI-driven M&A, noting that most acquisitions concentrated at the infrastructure and platform layers. This was not in the 2024 outlook. The market moved faster than the prediction.
The macro recovery Goldman predicted materialized, but AI-driven deal activity became the surprise catalyst that accelerated volume beyond expectations.
What This Means for Business Owners
Goldman writes for CEOs of billion-dollar companies. Here is what their data means for the rest of us.
Goldman Sachs advises on mega-deals. Their clients are Fortune 500 boards and sovereign wealth funds. The typical separation they tracked was $500 million or larger. If you run a $3M-$30M revenue business, their report was not written for you.
But the macro forces they identified trickle down. When corporate buyers get aggressive at the top of the market, competition for quality assets increases at every level. When sponsors have $2+ trillion in dry powder waiting for deployment, some of that capital flows into lower middle market deals through search funds, independent sponsors, and PE platform add-ons.
I watched this play out in our own deal pipeline. A SaaS company we advised in late 2024 received three competing LOIs within six weeks. Two years earlier, a similar company at similar metrics sat on the market for five months before getting a single offer. Same quality business. Different market.
A SaaS client we advised saw competitive bidding intensify as the M&A recovery Goldman predicted filtered into the lower middle market.
But the founder who got three LOIs had spent 18 months preparing. Clean financials. Documented SOPs. Customer concentration below 15%. The market helped, but preparation created the outcome.
Macro tailwinds help, but they reward prepared sellers disproportionately. The gap between a prepared exit and an unprepared one widens in a hot market.
The Contrarian Read on Bullish Reports
When Goldman says “buy,” ask what they are selling.
Every investment bank publishes bullish M&A outlooks. Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley. They all predict recovery, momentum, and opportunity. They have to. Their revenue depends on deal volume.
That does not make them wrong. The data supported Goldman’s 2024 thesis, and it still supports a strong 2025-2026 environment. But founders should read these reports with a specific lens: the trends are real, the timing is uncertain, and the relevance to your specific exit depends entirely on your readiness.
I have seen founders delay an exit because “the market will be even better next year.” Sometimes it is. Sometimes rates spike, a recession hits, or a key customer churns. The best time to sell is when your business is ready and a willing buyer is at the table. Market reports do not close deals. Preparation does.
Goldman’s 2025 outlook projects continued momentum into 2026, citing AI-driven M&A, sponsor liquidity needs, and regulatory tailwinds. Read the full report here.
Read the reports for context. Build your exit plan based on your own metrics, timeline, and readiness, not Wall Street’s forecast.
Key Metrics That Matter More Than Headlines
What actually drives your valuation when a buyer sits across the table.
| Metric | Why Buyers Care | Target for Premium Valuation |
|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue Retention | Proves existing customers grow over time | >110% |
| Customer Concentration | Single-client risk kills deals | <15% from top customer |
| Owner Dependency | Buyers want a business, not a job | Owner works <10 hrs/week on ops |
| Revenue Growth | Forward trajectory matters more than trailing | >15% YoY for SaaS |
| Gross Margin | Signals scalability and pricing power | >70% for SaaS |
Goldman’s report tracks $3 trillion in total deal volume. Your buyer will track the five metrics above. Both matter. One of them is in your control. Use Livmo’s SaaS Valuation Calculator to benchmark where you stand today.
Macro M&A trends set the stage, but your company-specific metrics determine whether you exit at 4x or 8x revenue.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Goldman Sachs predict for M&A in 2024?
Goldman Sachs predicted a shift “from stability to strength,” driven by corporate simplification, a move toward older economy sectors like natural resources (25% of all 2023 activity), increased activist campaigns targeting large-cap companies, and a transition from financial sponsors to corporate strategic buyers. The prediction proved largely accurate, with global deal value rising 15% to $3.5 trillion in 2024.
How does the M&A market outlook affect small business sellers?
Macro M&A trends trickle down to the lower middle market. When corporate buyers compete aggressively at the top, competition for quality assets increases at every level. Sponsors with over $2 trillion in dry powder deploy capital through search funds and PE platform add-ons, creating more buyer demand for businesses in the $3M-$30M revenue range. However, the benefit is disproportionately captured by prepared sellers with clean financials and documented operations.
Is 2025-2026 a good time to sell a business?
Market conditions are favorable. Global M&A reached $4.8 trillion in 2025, the second-highest total on record. Goldman Sachs projects continued momentum into 2026. But timing should be driven by business readiness, not market reports. The best time to sell is when your metrics are strong, your operations are documented, and a qualified buyer is interested.
What is corporate simplification in M&A?
Corporate simplification is when large companies divest non-core business units to focus capital and management attention on their strongest segments. Goldman Sachs tracked 22 global separations above $500 million in 2023, with over 70% receiving positive market reactions. By 2024, more than half of these transactions occurred outside the United States.
Next Steps
The market is open. The question is whether your business is ready to walk through the door.
Goldman Sachs tracks trillions in deal flow. We will help you understand where your business fits in today’s M&A market. Book a free value assessment with Livmo to benchmark your metrics, identify gaps, and map the path to a successful exit.